Long IP / Short MINA · 1h pair

Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation. Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence) Correlation: 0.61 · Cointegrated: yes Z-score: -1.41 entry / -1.69 rolling Half-life 45.3h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 1.32 Pair volatility: 34.96% Backtest: 59.09% win · Sharpe 0.35 · 0.28% return · 2.22% max drawdown The recent divergence between IP (IPUSDT) and MINA (MINAUSDT) on the 1-hour timeframe appears to be driven primarily by idiosyncratic factors impacting each asset differently, rather than broad market moves. IP has shown relative strength, while MINA has weakened, creating a spread that is currently stretched beyond its typical range. This divergence is quantitatively significant but still within a zone where mean reversion remains plausible. From a narrative standpoint, there is no strong, recent fundamental catalyst explicitly explaining this divergence. The latest market commentary and news flows do not highlight any major protocol upgrades, partnerships, or regulatory developments uniquely benefiting IP or negatively impacting MINA in the last few days. This absence of clear, asymmetric fundamental drivers suggests the current spread deviation is more likely a technical or sentiment-driven dislocation rather than a structural shift in intrinsic value. Quantitatively, the pair remains cointegrated with a moderate positive correlation, indicating a long-term equilibrium relationship still holds. The half-life of about 45 hours suggests the spread tends to revert on a timescale of roughly two days, which aligns well with the current timeframe of divergence. The rolling z-score is moderately negative but has not yet reached extreme levels, implying the spread is stretched but not at a critical overextension. The static z-score being close to the rolling one supports that this deviation is meaningful relative to the long-term average. The high Hurst exponent near 0.9 indicates strong trending behavior in the spread, which can sometimes delay mean reversion, but the regime classification as STRONG_DIVERGENCE with LOW confidence signals caution. This means while the spread is diverging sharply, the system acknowledges a risk of further deviation before reversion. However, the backtest results show a positive expectancy with a win rate near 60% and a modest Sharpe ratio, suggesting that historically, trades initiated at similar divergence levels have tended to revert profitably over the half-life horizon. Looking at the individual assets, the relative strength in IP could be attributed to steady demand or accumulation, possibly driven by short-term speculative interest or minor positive sentiment not yet captured in major news. Conversely, MINA’s weakness may stem from profit-taking or minor technical selling pressure, rather than any fundamental deterioration, given the lack of recent negative headlines. This imbalance in flows creates the spread divergence. In summary, the lack of recent, relevant fundamental catalysts to justify a sustained divergence, combined with the pair’s cointegration and mean-reverting statistical properties, supports the probability of a mean reversion. The current spread level is stretched but not extreme, and the historical backtest performance under similar conditions favors a reversion trade despite the low regime confidence. The divergence likely reflects transient market dynamics rather than a permanent decoupling, making a return toward equilibrium a reasonable expectation.